Friends, I was reviewing Jupiter’s revenue reports and made a small calculation:
Jupiter’s quarterly Litterbox buybacks range between $20M and $30M.
At the same time, Jupiter’s monthly unlocks are 53.47M JUP, totaling 213.88M JUP per quarter.
With Jupiter’s current revenue model, it’s impossible to outpace inflation. Even if they use $30M for buybacks, at the current price that only buys back around 120M JUP — while the team and the so-called “Mercurial Holders,” our biggest headache, are selling 214M JUP onto the market every quarter.
This creates a massive demand imbalance and naturally pushes the price down.
So we have two options:
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Improve Jupiter’s revenue model.
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Stop the allocation given to the Mercurial stakeholders.
As much as we wish for option 2, it’s probably impossible.
Based on my calculations, Jupiter reaches break-even at $0.14.
But Jupiter’s revenue must not decline. Or a third option: they must give people a real reason to buy JUP.
Until now, they constantly distributed JUP — rewards, airdrops, incentives… always distributing, never encouraging people to buy the token. If we don’t want Jupiter to fall below this price range, then for a full year, each quarter, the DAO needs to get 100–150M JUP staked outside of ASR incentives.
And to achieve that, we obviously need more use cases. I hope the team has concrete plans. I’m excited for JupUSD and for what will be announced in January 2026 with Jupuary and JUPNET. Hopefully we can move toward better days.
Note: By the end of December 2026, all tokens will be unlocked, and Jupiter will be creating constant buy pressure through Litterbox. I believe the real light for JUP will come in 2027, but we have a long 2026 ahead.
As investors, we already suffered heavily this year — from $1.20 down to $0.25 — we are at our limit. I truly hope things improve from here.